![]() The problem is that historical risks you can study are dwarfed by risks you actually experience. Maybe 10 topics and their solutions, said slightly differently, dominate business and investing books. Risk in most professions is managed by studying what’s common. And those crazy things do the most harm, because they happen more often than you think and you have no plan for how to deal with them. You can plan for every risk except the things that are too crazy to cross your mind. ![]() What kind of tank designer thinks about mouse protection? Nobody planned this, nobody expected it. This almost certainly never crossed their minds. The Germans had the most sophisticated equipment in the world. Historian William Craig writes: “During the weeks of inactivity behind the front lines, field mice had nested inside the vehicles and eaten away insulation covering the electrical systems.” Engineers quickly found the issue, which, if I didn’t read this in a reputable history book, would defy belief. Out of 104 tanks in the unit, fewer than 20 were operable. When tanks were desperately needed on the front lines, something happened that surprised everyone: Almost none of the them worked. ![]() One came in late 1942, when a German tank unit sat in reserve on grasslands outside the city. With it came equally superlative stories of how people dealt with risk. The Battle of Stalingrad was the largest battle in history.
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